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byThe Meridiem Team

Published: Updated: 
5 min read

Nuclear Gains Mainstream Support as AI Energy Demands Reshape US Power Grid

US energy policy inflection: nuclear transitions from villainized to strategic solution as coal declines and data center expansion faces regulatory walls. Immediate timing for enterprise infrastructure decisions and investor positioning.

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The Meridiem TeamAt The Meridiem, we cover just about everything in the world of tech. Some of our favorite topics to follow include the ever-evolving streaming industry, the latest in artificial intelligence, and changes to the way our government interacts with Big Tech.

  • Nuclear gains mainstream political support while coal declines from 45% to 17% of US power mix - structural energy policy shift driven by AI infrastructure demands

  • Public support for nuclear at highest level since 2010 with Trump administration ordering 10 new large reactors by 2030 and $1B federal backing for Microsoft's Three Mile Island restart

  • Data center pushback emerging: More than 2 dozen coal plants getting extended lifelines despite retirement schedules, signaling grid capacity constraints becoming bottleneck for AI expansion

  • For enterprises, the window closes soon - reactor timelines remain tricky despite high-profile deals; for investors, coal utilities slashing carbon exposure signals 5-10 year transition timeline

The US just crossed a generational energy inflection point. Nuclear, after nearly two decades of industry decline and political abandonment, has shifted from cautionary tale to strategic solution. The catalyst: AI's voracious power appetite and a political alignment that finally positions nuclear not as a regulatory burden but as essential infrastructure. This matters immediately for enterprise decision-makers planning data center locations, investors timing energy infrastructure plays, and professionals in infrastructure roles tracking grid capacity constraints that could limit AI compute expansion.

The energy story that will determine whether AI stays buildable in America is no longer a software problem. It's a grid problem.

Nuclear just crossed from political liability to political asset. What Molly Taft reported from Wired this morning captures the precise moment: US support for nuclear power has hit its highest point since 2010, according to Gallup. But this isn't abstract sentiment. It's being backed by concrete policy and real capital commitments. In May, the Trump administration signed executive orders to construct 10 new large reactors by 2030. The Department of Energy created a pilot program that's already generating breakthroughs from smaller reactor startups. Energy Secretary Chris Wright framed it plainly: "AI's progress will be accelerated by rapidly unlocking and deploying commercial nuclear power."

That's not energy policy talking. That's industrial strategy.

Meanwhile, coal - which dominated the US power mix at 45% just 15 years ago - has collapsed to 17% of current generation. But here's the telling detail: More than two dozen coal generating units that were scheduled to retire are now staying online. Some are getting multi-year reprieves. The administration's April executive orders to boost coal-powered energy coincided with Wright's emergency directive to keep two plants online that were headed for retirement. The lifeline is real, even if it's temporary.

What's shifted isn't the market fundamentals. It's the constraints on market logic.

Tech giants are moving with surprising velocity. Microsoft didn't just sign a deal to restart Three Mile Island - it backed that commitment with joining the World Nuclear Association and secured $1 billion in federal loan backing for the project. Google and Amazon have inked multiple nuclear deals in recent years. These aren't speculative positions. They're positioning statements about where compute infrastructure has to go if AI continues accelerating at current growth rates.

But here's the catch embedded in Taft's reporting: The practicalities of nuclear energy leave its future in doubt. Most of nuclear's costs don't come from regulation - they come from construction. Timelines for new reactor deployments remain "tricky" despite the high-profile tech commitments promising completion within years. The $80 billion government deal struck with Westinghouse in October is, as reported, light on execution details. And there's justified skepticism about small modular reactor (SMR) valuations, especially those with deep Trump administration connections.

This is the infrastructure equivalent of a poker game with unequal information.

What's actually changing underneath these political dynamics is real: Coal's trajectory is structurally downward. Almost all of the 10 largest US utilities are significantly slashing coal reliance, with most pivoting toward nuclear replacement. This isn't administration policy - it's utility economics. Coal's bad reputation also matters more in a climate-conscious tech industry than it did in 2017. No major tech company has publicly partnered with coal. The reputational calculus has shifted.

The larger market signal comes from where energy investment isn't flowing. Utility-scale solar and onshore wind remain among the cheapest energy sources available even without subsidies. China is expanding renewable capacity at scale while nuclear comprises only a small slice of its power generation. If the administration's goal is AI dominance, it might want to examine whether coal-adjacent policy is actually aligned with building the most efficient data center infrastructure possible.

The timing inflection matters differently for different audiences. For enterprises planning new compute capacity, the window to lock in nuclear power contracts is narrow - most announced reactor projects target 2028-2030 completion, but construction timelines routinely slip. Waiting until 2027 might mean a 2031 timeline. For investors, the coal-to-nuclear utility transition creates a 5-10 year reallocation opportunity, but the SMR space remains valuation-questionable pending actual execution proof. For infrastructure professionals, the constraint everyone's watching is grid capacity - if 25+ coal plants get extended lifelines instead of retirement, that addresses only part of the 100+ gigawatts of new power demand AI infrastructure is projected to require by 2030. That math doesn't close without successful reactor restarts or massive renewable buildouts.

The most important shift here isn't political. It's that the energy constraint on AI compute has moved from theoretical to immediate. Companies can't build data centers without power. Power won't be available without either massive nuclear acceleration (which requires financing and construction execution) or regulatory acceptance of natural gas expansion. The political momentum for nuclear is real, but the execution timeline is uncertain. That gap between political momentum and physical capacity is where infrastructure decisions get made or delayed.

The US energy grid is experiencing a political-versus-market inflection that will define whether AI infrastructure buildout succeeds or stalls. Nuclear has genuinely crossed into mainstream acceptance - polling, administration policy, and tech company commitments are aligned for the first time in two decades. But execution is the filter. Enterprise decision-makers need to start stress-testing their 2027-2030 infrastructure plans against both accelerated nuclear scenarios and constrained-capacity scenarios. Investors should track utility coal retirement schedules and nuclear contract wins as leading indicators of which timeline becomes real. The coal reprieve is real but temporary - utilities are already moving past it. Watch for the first major reactor restart completion, the first publicly reported construction delay on the 10-reactor program, and quarterly utility earnings disclosures about coal capacity retirements. Those will tell you whether the political momentum translates to physical capacity or stays a policy headline.

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